Covid-19 Change world Economy | The Economist point of view

Covid-19 Change world Economy  The Economist point of view

I am here today to discuss about the corona virus covid-19 affects and will try to answer your questions in your mind about economy. I would like to think that is what would happen I am not sure it is what is going to happen and partly because, we are going to go through a very hard time in the economy in now days. Very huge economic troubles tend is start and to unsettle politics and to create grievances and resentments. It is one in which the post Second World War order is breaking down.

United States after Covid-19 VS China  

Where China country is very clearly the rising power, where the United States United States of America (USA) is more worried. About Chinese power, the pandemic has comments hit the world and just when those issues are becoming more intense. Therefore, I think I fear that it makes them harder to solve rather than easier to solve his era of globalization was very much slow and long before the Kovach pandemic came along. That was only partly related to the election of Donald Trump was slowing even before he became president. We  think that was that was a kind of slow after outcome of the financial disaster but you know what the past experience tends to show is that crises tend to kind of re-enforce pre-existing trends and old globalization was one of them the financial markets are hoping on this idea of a v-shaped recession. That's the idea that you know in one quarter or perhaps in two quarters GP will decline by perhaps a you know an surprising amount, but because lockdowns will come to an end people will make up for missing time.

Chinese economy during Lockdown

I think what people are now starting to wonder is whether that really is going to happen and in particular, they are looking at what is happening in China, which began to ease its lock down in kind of late February & March. The moment I mean it is certainly, the case that economic activity has recovered from its lows, but it is still a long way off. The Chinese economy is running at about 90% capacity or compared with. What was up before the pandemic? That is really for a few reasons you know. What keen-sighted is that all individuals are going back to the office or other words that all are going to office back and going back to the factory and all that kind of stuff? Because they have to but what they are not doing is going out and having really spending the money having a good time investing in big things. What that means is that the kind of supply side of the China country economy it has in a way got back to normal but there's a the petition side hasn't and that means that unemployment is going to maybe be persistently quite high in China for quite a long time. So if people working in restaurants; in bars, shops and all that kind of thing there just isn't really demand for their services. So I think what you are going to start to see now is as you know various American states start to loosen down lock down so now off course as Europe also starts to come out a lot.

Back to Work- After COVID-19

I think it is very unlikely we are going to get back to where we were at the beginning of this year first effects of this disease was interruption supply chains. We think that might continue with companies in that they might expand their supply chains and that was kind of in anyway because China country is pleasant a more expensive place to manufacture things as against that supply chains have a strong driving force for getting costs down and of being improved. They are intolerant of inefficiencies and so that will still sort of be pushing very strongly in the other direction. I guess one thing that it might add today is to think about the business system and about how that world.  All we know that is part of a supply chain to you know how a power company is able to access finance in order to start producing stuff.

Uncertainty across the World

What you are seeing now really across the world is unprecedented levels of uncertainty. So it think what you could see is that you know financing new projects in the country and getting people to commit to projects could actually become very difficult. This is initial to show up in the data now where if you look at surveys of leaders. You know they are asked what your plans for deal are and so on they are much lower now. They were even in the absolute depths of the financial crisis of 2008 -09 and back bear in mind back then you know. Some people really thought the financial system was going to come to a complete stop it is held up a mirror to them to the most vulnerable aspects of society. I mean you know Singapore is a great example of that you know it is a country. That speciously had allocated with the epidemic really well and then a few weeks down the line there is you know there's huge outbreaks in the in the migrant labor camp.

Covid-19 – Corona Hit world Economy

That keep the Singaporean economy going, there are the kind of seedy underbelly of the Singaporean economy, and people there have very poor access to health care. and off course there are still lots of people who are uninsured in the United State of America (USA) and you know  there are worries that those persons and yet that you know specific people lose their jobs that people will be less willing to go forward for testing and so on.  I think what you could see and this perhaps would be one of the biggest you know upsides of the whole pandemic is there the idea of you know a universal access to health care that's free at the point of use could start to become common sense in all countries. I think the pandemic will make States more powerful if you look back at you know centuries of really of Western history there is sort of more lessons that arisen about the supremacy of states one is that they it tends to rise over time as a kind of background effect. The next one is that states (country) tend to turn out to be a lot more controlling both during and after immediately after periods of crisis

 COVID-19 Unemployment Increase

What happens is that the state it does not as if saying this but it rather accepts that in a recession businesses will go bust and people will become unemployed. It says that is okay because the idea is that you want to you know reallocate people and capital and all that kind of stuff from areas that were failing to areas that are up and coming. That is how it normally works but what has happened in this time is that states of governments and politicians saying if we can, we want to avoid all bankruptcies. We want to make sure that nobody becomes un-employed in the different counties as in whole world. What that does is it opens the door to really important government intervention in the low-cost going forward so you know let's think more that in a few years where we have relocated to move outside this pandemic but off course there will be another recession at some point down the line.

During Covid-19 Jobs Problem in Private Sector

I think if it's normally acknowledged that the government did a good-looking good job during this kind of  crisis if occurs in future of protecting jobs and protecting firms then people will say well heaven if it worked last time then why not do it again. I think peoples are thankful if government prepare and or other words we can that ready for this kind of situation. We could see moderately radical fluctuations in sort of outlooks of what the state should do and what the state thinks it's real for it to do you often hear people of country say that one thing at least good thing that is  arise of the pandemic is that has been good for the climate you can compute. You know how many thousands of tons of carbon dioxide put into the atmosphere, because there have been rarer trips and so forth. It is suppose there is a sort of sit-down result you know people might you know better.

Industries Collapsed– During the COVID-19

This is in the sense something that does not normally happen but as against that, you know a poorer world. A whole world that has less disposition to invest and a world as vexed about unemployment and life and expiry is a world. That I think is less tending to invest in the change of you know the world to a sort of carbon free economy. There is one big wrinkle on that however, which is the oil industry the price has collapsed countries in the Middle East Russia.

COVID – 19 Effected Oil industries in world many countries

Venezuela country that totally depended upon oil. The oil very important or other words we can say the Oil is the main source Venezuela country of their foreign exchange earnings are suddenly finding that they are getting enough money to do the things. The some countries oil price might not recover for a very long time because Covid-19 more effected the oil industry.  That also is giving people a sort of slope and a sight that there may be a future without oil; which is a very important component of the transition to away from a carbon-based economy. I mean it is becoming more distant. I suppose in the sense that I think you know if you are having a meeting with someone and face-to-face you know for the near future there has to be a worthwhile meeting.

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The idea of going for a speculative coffee with someone well seen at least for a while kind of weird you are  only your you'll reserve your ventures out of the house for people that you sort of know you're going to have a productive time with. So it is think that will possibly you know decrease the exchange of ideas each other and that kind of thing. The same goes for travel corporate travel and research travel and so on you know if you look at what has happened say in the scientific community and in economics, most papers research papers now. The most research projects involve a large team of people and also a growing proportion of those projects evolve people in more than one country you know normally that might be the America or Canada but you do get an incredible diversity in cooperation. That if you know meeting people and traveling becomes harder you can see a big hit to innovation and patenting and all that rather stuff probably quite a lot. So we did a we did a analysis a couple of weeks ago looking at the countries which countries that we're going to be most affected potentially by the turn down. If you see at the very top of the position in the country’s most are affected they are true and reliant on economies; Greece comes unfortunately right at the top. Then country Italy and Spain country are offset lithography in the top as well in the world.  The country Turkey also is very high up there mostly in Europe to tourism ministers are starting to talk to each other and say you know how can we make this work; if Greece doesn't have a tourist season this year this summer its economies and is in really serious trouble. I expect you will start to see is people thinking you know creatively about what they might do I actually remain optimistic about saying the prospects that people will be able to travel so on. It might become something is open to fewer people you know if the flight from say London to Spain is only allowed to be two-thirds full; because of the mandatory collective distancing then that means the ticket prices will have to go up. Therefore, it would be available to fewer people but my sense is that because this is such an important issue for some countries that is there people will find a way of making this work if it is all possible.

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